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March 13, 2006GOP Flavor in ‘08 - UPDATEDA few posts down, I’d opined about the future of Tony Soprano and also suggested that Rudy Giuliani is the obvious candidate for the WH in ‘08, to which Mr. Murphy took exception in the comments section. We’ve agreed to disagree, but Mr. Murphy wondered what I thought about a Mitt Romney/George Allen ticket, since I’d dismissed Allen as an uncharismatic zero. I figured I’d answer it here, and we could have a good debate. Romney/Allen? THINK about what the Democrats and the press are going to do with Mitt’s religion. THINK what some conservative Christians will do about his religion. I like Mitt, but I don’t believe a Mormon can be elected to the Oval Office - not right now. If and when Romney gets serious, you’ll start to see articles about Mormons and what they believe and the “garments”, and the “pulling the wife through” to heaven, the white salamandar, the golden plates, and the father of the household being a god of his own galaxy. You’ll have “sophisticates” mocking it, and you’ll have evangelicals challenging him on points of scripture - even on the most basic precept of Mormonism, which is that a husband and wife are married “for eternity,” that they are still married after death and in the next life, which goes directly against scripture and Jesus’ teaching. I know some people think religion will be a small issue. I disagree. Our nation is passionate in her belief and in her disbelief. The atheists and agnostics will mock Mormonism; the Evanglicals (and other Christians) on the right will feel repugnance toward some aspects of the LDS (Latter Day Saints). It will not be like JFK in the 1960’s where a few words will quell the fears of many. Betsy Newmark wrote a splendid piece on this matter last year - she relays a spot-on vision of the baggage a Mitt Romney presidency will haul along with it. She wrote another piece here. I think if Romney is serious about a run for the WH, he’d better read Betsy and anticipate what is coming his way. And George Allen, I’m sorry, the guy is a zero. He has no personality, no charisma. He may be the best guy in the whole world, but in a media age, like it or not, charisma does count. Same for Pataki, same for Frist. Zero. Snore. Thud. The next GOP candidate has to have a close-to skeleton-free closet. The only one I know who has that is Giuliani. Were there skeletons in his closet, the Clintons would have found them in 2000, and since then he has been happily married and living quite “respectably.” I’m sure that his ex-wife, Donna Hanover, who doesn’t mind being in the news, would provide a few “he screamed at me and I hid in the closet” headlines, but she is such an unlikeable person, herself, I doubt anything lasting could come of it. Rice probably has no skeletons in her closet, but we’ve already seen that the Democrats like to “suggest” that any unmarried or late-married person is “gay,” - they do it quite a lot - and that card will surely be played and Condi will have to deal with it, unfair as it may be. The next GOP candidate has to have the public’s absolute trust that he cannot be bought or swayed by opportunism or polls. That’s Rudy, and maybe Rice. Frist and Pataki are goners, on this requirement. Mitt might be. Allen? I dunno. The next GOP candidate for president has to be able to communicate better than President Bush. I love Dubya but we can’t have 8 more years of halting speech, and a WH that consistently drops the PR/backtalk/information ball - probably because they are so fed up with the press, I grant you - but it needs to be better. Rudy is crackerjack on this. He is clear, quick, decisive, humorous and he surrounds himself with people who know how to handle the press. He is not “glib” like a Bill Clinton, but he can handle himself very well and better, I think, than Hillary Clinton, who gets a pass on every flub. The next GOP candidate has to be appealing to more than the GOP base - he or she needs to be able to snatch some folks from the moderate Democrats and even some not-so-moderate-but-serious-about-security Dems. I think Rudy can do that. I suspect Rice can. Allen cannot, nor the others. The next GOP candidate has to be charismatic, and yes, have a patina, however thin, of ethnicity. John Kerry and Al Gore were the last two button-downed-droning-mainline-protestant types we’re going to see as serious candidates for a long time, I think. And to be honest, Kerry was so insecure and phony, and Gore was so nakedly crazed by the end of his 2000 campaign, that their weirdnesses stood in the place of ethnicity, which is probably the wrong word. Perhaps the word I want is “flavor.” President Bush is WASP but with a twinge of cowboy and plain-folks about him that is appealing. A staid, respectable white fellow with no twinge of flavor is going to die out there. He’s everyone’s competent project manager, but no one’s CEO. Again, who has got flavor in the GOP? Rudy. Rice. Romney has a little because he is exotically Mormon, but as I said, I suspect that flavor will not travel well. In a world where “It’s Hard Out There for a Pimp” is an award-winning song, a candidate has to bring more to the party than the dependability of a Maytag washer. If the next President is not strong on security, strong on the WOT and a strong fiscal conservative, then none of the “social issues” that some call “deal breakers” will be relevant. You know what’s funny? I know the press thinks John McCain is the front-runner…but honestly, he doesn’t even pop into my head. The thing we all have to remember is that - in all of this, as in all of life - there are things seen and unseen at work. Whenever I get balled up about election-talk I always remember this: Rudy Giuliani pulled out of the NY Senate race in 2000 to attend to himself and his bout with prostate cancer. Had he not gotten cancer, he could very well have won the seat in the senate…and that would have made 9/11 even more horrific than it was, because once Rudy went to Washington his place would have been filled by the empty-suited “public advocate,” Mark Green. I cannot even begin to imagine what 9/11 would have been like with the ineffectual and mediocre Green at the helm in NYC, rather than Rudy. Meaning, all things work to God’s purposes, even if - on the surface - things don’t seem so swell. Keeping the eyes open and the hands clasped in prayer still seems to me the best advice on any given day! Your thoughts? UPDATE: Mark at Decision ‘08 says Rudy is not acting like a candidate. Okie is strong on Rice. Hugh Hewitt says Mitt’s supporters are hard-wired. http://theanchoressonline.com/2006/03/13/gop-flavor-in-08/trackback/ 14 Responses to “GOP Flavor in ‘08 - UPDATED” |
March 13th, 2006 at 12:38 pm
I was just talking about this last night with my husband. My idea of a “dream ticket” would be J.C. Watts for President and Condi Rice for VP. I’d prefer it the other way around, but I do think the Dems would play into Rice’s unmarried status more so in that scenario than if she’s running for VP. Watts is a very articulate, intelligent black Christian male and I think he’s very well respected by both parties (at least at this stage of the game) - although he may get criticized from the likes of Jackson and Sharpton (but what else is new?).
March 13th, 2006 at 1:31 pm
I love Rudy and would vote for him in a New York minute if he were not pro-choice. The next president must be pro-life and continue to appoint judges that will eventually over-turn Rove V Wade and send the issue back to the states.
I can overlook a lot of things, but his views on abortion are not among them.
March 13th, 2006 at 1:37 pm
I think we’re already seeing the beginning of the Roe V. Wade rollback, and Bush still has three more years in which to appoint new judges, should that opportunity arise. In the meantime, you have to keep your eye on the prize, in other ways. Get behind an unelectable candidate and you do the pro-life movement no favors by electing a Hillary or Feingold. It ALL has to be taken into consideration. I’m always fascinated when people say they will endure the election of a completely unpalatable president “but at least I’ll have voted my principles…” whenever I hear that I shudder and remember 1992.
March 13th, 2006 at 2:00 pm
I wrote last week that I think middle America will vote for either Rudy or Condi. I think the abortion issue is overplayed + trumped-up by the pundits/media. I agree, however, that Mormonism is another matter.
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Protestants are the heart of the red state Republican vote. Protestants consider Mormonism to be so illogical as to call into question the intelligence of anyone who would follow the religion. Romney would cause unenthused Protestants to stay home in droves, and some red states would be picked off by the Dem Pres. candidate.
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I think George Allen is a legitimate candidate to win the office. George Allen is steady, knows who he is and what he believes, and is willing to make tough decisions. That’s what people want. It may not be what glib urban populations want, but glib urban populations might not matter. Republicans are elected by middle America. Steady, sure, and tough is what middle America wants. Steady, sure, and tough is why they will vote for Rudy, or Condi, or George Allen, imo. McCain looks incredibly unsteady to me, but I don’t have a feeling for how everyone else views him.
March 13th, 2006 at 2:14 pm
Excelent post. While I agree that Romney’s religion might be an impediment, I’m not so sure it is as big a deal as many think.
Joe Lieberman came to within a court decision to being within arms length of the presidency and the first Catholic, of either party, that is deserving of the nod, will win or lose on issues- not on the basis of religion.
The fact is, I like Romney for the GOP and Lieberman for the dems.
Neither of them have a chance- not because of their religion, but rather because of their morality.
The funny thing is, either of them would do the Oval Office proud.
March 13th, 2006 at 2:18 pm
Looking Toward ‘08
Gotta love the Anchoress, especially when she gets all wound up and deconstructs something like who-will-be-the-’08-GOP-candidate? From nearly falling asleep at the keyboard thinking of Allen, to telling us why we aren’t quite ready yet for a Mormon …
March 13th, 2006 at 2:53 pm
Now Anchoress, rest assured if the choice is between Rudy and Hillary, well I’ll pull the trigger for Rudy and hope he’ll do the right thing. I do have my eyes on the prize and won’t make the mistake I made in “92″.
March 13th, 2006 at 3:01 pm
(Ring, ring, ring) “Hello? This is History and Providence calling for Condi Rice.”
March 13th, 2006 at 3:15 pm
Republican Straw Poll For ‘08
Over the weekend a straw poll of ‘08 republican presidential hopefuls showed Frist with an edge. But the straw poll was the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard of. Frist isn’t going to win the nomination in ‘08 just because he
March 13th, 2006 at 5:18 pm
I think this is what is going to doom Condi: the fact that she referred to GWB as her “husband” before catching herself. The Dems–and not just the Kos Kids–think that GWB and Condi are having an affair and that the MSM is giving them a pass on it. After all, GWB refers to her by a nickname AND they spend “every weekend” together at Camp David.
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Giuliani would be a great choice (with maybe Condi as VP). I think the GOP is going to have to tone down their absolute opposition to abortion in their party platform. Personally, I would rather have a candidate who is tough on the GWoT and “soft” on abortion than the other way around.
March 13th, 2006 at 5:32 pm
March Hare, recall too than when Bush and Condi snuck to Iraq, he said they dressed down and looked “like an ordinary couple,” which raised a few eyebrows over at the Kos site, as well. Because they think the best of everyone over there!
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I kind of think abortion and the WOT go hand in hand in one respect, but in another, it remains true that if a president is weak on defense, the social issues won’t matter.
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I expect that RvW will be fully on the backs of the states by ‘08 anyway.
August 21st, 2006 at 3:56 pm
[...] Related: GOP Flavor in ‘08 I give Peoria More Credit than Others Do. Wizbang tracked back with The 2008 Race Is Well Underway Posted on: 10 Comments ? [...]
August 30th, 2006 at 5:44 am
[...] WELCOME AKP readers! Please look around while you’re here. We’ve continued this discussion up above. [...]
November 26th, 2006 at 2:17 pm
[...] And btw, Betsy Newmark predicted all this, (and so did I) a long while back. We predicted this behavior from the press, and others. Mitt’s going to have a long row to hoe if he is serious about a bid for the WH. Meanwhile read the link to Betsy, who wrote smart about Mitt’s future trials and tribulations back in 2005. [...]