Clinton & Bush both thrown a Curveball on Iraq?

“If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.”
–President Bill Clinton, Feb. 17, 1998

CBS is reporting that it has found the source of the bad Iraqi WMD intelligence; that would be one Rafid Ahmed Alwan, aka “Curveball.”

Are informants generally so aptly named?

Almost for as long as I’ve been blogging, I’ve been asking Where did the WMD intel come from?, a good question that everyone ignored in the rush to chant, “Bush lied!” As I pointed out repeatedly, President Bush presented the nation and the UN with the same intelligence President Clinton used to justify the Iraqi Liberation Act, and our flyovers and occasional bombings in that country - intelligence that pre-dated the Bush administration. Hillary Clinton, in 2003, concurred, saying that the information President Bush was showing was “consistent with what we saw,” when she and her husband were in the White House.

I’ve always maintained that since both presidents used the same intelligence, either both lied, or both told the truth. CBS is saying neither President lied; they were duped.

Curve Ball is an Iraqi defector named Rafid Ahmed Alwan, who arrived at a German refugee center in 1999. To bolster his asylum case and increase his importance, he told officials he was a star chemical engineer who had been in charge of a facility at Djerf al Nadaf that was making mobile biological weapons.
[…]
He eventually wound up in the care of German intelligence officials to whom he continued to spin his tale of biological weapons. His plan succeeded partially because he had worked briefly at the plant outside Baghdad and his descriptions of it were mostly accurate. He embellished his account by saying 12 workers had been killed by biological agents in an accident at the plant.

More than a hundred summaries of his debriefings were sent to the CIA, which then became a pillar - along with the now-disproved Iraqi quest for uranium for nuclear weapons - for the U.S. decision to bomb and then invade Iraq. The CIA-director George Tenet gave Alwan’s information to Secretary of State Colin Powell to use at the U.N. in his speech justifying military action against Iraq.

After 9/11, it would have been unthinkable for any president to allow Saddam, with his history of using biological weapons, of attempting to assassinate an American President and of harboring terrorists like Abu Abbas, to maintain the status quo. And once upon a time, most Americans and most congressional creatures understood that, which is why the congress voted to depose Saddam and liberate the Iraqi people, a good move they’ve actually tried to distance themselves from, because it got difficult as Bush said it would. Some who talked up the action might have thought Iraq would be a “cakewalk,” but Bush told us it would be a “long, hard slog.”

You’d think this story - which goes to the root of the “lies” that brought us into Iraq after 9/11, and puts to rest the “Bush lied” mantra - would be grabbing headlines all over the place. Oh, I forgot, it puts to rest the “Bush lied” mantra.

The narrative is so ingrained, and so many have so much invested in it, that it would be remarkable - and inspiring - to see a few folk in the press and congress suggest (even if they do it grudgingly) that “maybe Bush didn’t ‘lie,’ maybe the rhetoric has been too harsh,” but I won’t hold my breath for it. And I know the Bush WH won’t do anything to correct the narrative because they never do.

But if things continue to look up in Iraq, some in congress might want to go look at their vote authorizing action once again, and maybe even take a little credit for taking part in an action that was bold and visionary, even if it was terribly, terribly difficult, (nothing great is easy) and which liberated millions of people who are learning to trust the US - after being let down by us, before - and are slowly, slowly, learning to throw off the yoke of tribalism and begin to self-govern.

If things continue to look up in Iraq, then someday America will look back and say, “we did something great, there, and - considering Japan and Germany - we did it in a remarkable space of time.” If things collapse there, well…then we will be looking at a very different world, altogether. In either case, perhaps it is time to put the blame on the Curveball, and hope that our at-bats get better.

Other thoughts:
Jimmie Bise notes that “Curveball has popped up before, “but this is the first time we’ve gotten a clear look at what he told German intelligence officials and how the CIA took that information and ran with it.” He has more thoughts, here.

Ed Morrissey was writing about Curveball (and other things) back in May of 2007 so some are wondering why CBS is talking this up now.

Red State suspects CBS is setting up a narrative shift on the war and the Clinton administration. While Big Lizard wonders about the whole story’s credibility - he says CBS is pulling a fast one.

Meanwhile Rudy Giuliani notes how Bill Clinton slashed our intelligence budget. Not saying that’s why we relied too much on a curveball, but who knows. Rudy’s speech sounds both funny and frank.

Related:
Bill Clinton, 1998 - Iraq has abused it’s last chance
Iraq War/Global Warming, a study in Irony

WELCOME: Instapundit readers and thanks, Glenn, for the link! While you’re here, please look around. We’re also talking about why Hillary Clinton reminds me of Mama Rose, whether she and Rudy should have some sort of glamorous sing-off, how much it peeves me to see the way men and parents are portrayed on television and in ads (the writer’s strike is not breaking my heart) and we’re wondering whether the press is interested in declaring itself free guardians of the public trust or owned members of a political movement. They can’t really be both.

The Anchoress pinged back with Thanking God for Dubya - recapping WMD
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by TheAnchoress @ 5:45 pm. Filed under Bush Good, The Fourth Estate, War on Terror, War, What it good for?, Why can't weeee be friends

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26 Responses to “Clinton & Bush both thrown a Curveball on Iraq?”

Terrye Says:
November 2nd, 2007 at 6:19 pm
I have always thought that people were being so selective about this. I can remember Clinton and members of his administration talking about Saddam and his weapons. After all, if it were as simple as some people say, why wasn’t all this resolved before Bush became president?
Kyle R. Cupp Says:
November 2nd, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Our public servants of whatever party or political philosophy should be held to the same standard. Hillary should take responsibility for her own decisions and not play the blame-game when it’s unwarranted.

That said, perhaps you can help me understand why President Bush and members of his administration claimed certain knowledge about a state of affairs that was perhaps highly likely but not at all unequivocally certain. The language used in part to justify the war expressed that there was no doubt Hussein had weapons of mass murder, when doubt there was.

Using language of certainty for something dubious may not be tantamount to deliberately deceiving the public, but it still seems to bear false witness. Am I wrong here?
TheAnchoress Says:
November 2nd, 2007 at 8:10 pm
I don’t know if you’re right or wrong. I just know both administrations used the same language because they had the same intelligence. Did they use “certain” language when they didn’t have a smoking gun? Yes. Is that lying? I really don’t know if it’s lying, if these presidents really BELIEVED the intelligence. I can look outside my window and, because of my own observations of a cloudy sky, declare that it’s going to be a rainy day and make my kids take umbrellas and wear raincoats. If I’ve used “certain” language about the rain, but it eventually becomes sunny, have I borne false witness or have I instructed my kids to the best of my ability with the information I had?
Terrye Says:
November 2nd, 2007 at 9:08 pm
Well look at Clinton’s old speeches, when he spoke of Saddam’s weapons there was no waffling. In fact he “guaranteed” us Saddam would use those weapons. In 2000 General Zinni went before the Senate and stated that Saddam was our greatest threat. In 1998 the Clinton administration named contacts with Iraq in the indictment against the men who blew up our embassy bombings.

The tone was not different with Bush.

BTW, no one knows to this day what Saddam did do with all of his weapons. Or if someone knows, they are not saying. So it could be that at one time the information was more reliable than it proved to be later.
Don Surber » Blog Archive » Curve Ball lied, people died Says:
November 2nd, 2007 at 10:20 pm
[…] The Anchoress weighs in. […]
Rick Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 9:13 am
Regarding Terrye’s statement about no one knowing what happened to Saddam’s WMD. I find it one heck of a coincidence that almost 5 years after the invasion of Iraq, with almost unanimous intelligence community agreement that he was building nukes, Israel finds it necessary to obliterate a possible nuclear weapons production facility in Syria. I may be mistaken, but people had been talking about trying to prevent Iran, Iraq and North Korea from building nukes, however I don’t recall them talking about Syria. And as I recall, people were saying Saddam was about 5 years away from weapons capability in March 03. Also, both countries are predominately Sunni and the Baathist Party was in charge of both. They had been allies in numerous wars before. I think Saddam moved his program to Syria before the war to preserve it. I’m not saying I’m positive this is what happened, but I think it’s a definite possibility.

It’s at least as plausible a theory as President Bush blowing up the WTC.
GaltLives Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 9:46 am
What happened to the story that the Russians helped Saddam move the WMD to Syria or Iran just before the war?
Brutally Honest Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 10:05 am
Bush didn’t lie, moonbat meme ought to die…

So an Iraqi defector code named, of all things, Curveball is revealed by CBS News as the faulty intel source that, among other items, is purported to have led to the war in Iraq:(CBS) 60 Minutes has identified the man…
dmitryb Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 10:59 am
how is this “discovery” new? There were reports of someone named Curveball as far back as 2005: http://www.wmd.gov/report/report.html#part1

“Our review found that after the publication of the October 2002 NIE but before Secretary of State Colin Powell’s February 2003 address to the United Nations, intelligence officials within the CIA failed to convey to policymakers new information casting serious doubt on the reliability of a human intelligence source known as “Curveball.” This occurred despite the pivotal role Curveball’s information played in the Intelligence Community’s assessment of Iraq’s biological weapons programs, and in spite of Secretary Powell’s efforts to strip every dubious piece of information out of his proposed speech. “
UrbanBard Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 11:30 am
This issue is so silly; the shoe is on the wrong foot. America need not prove anything.

UN inspectors in 1995 found tens to hundreds of thousands of tons of WMD in Iraq. Saddam Hussein was obligated by UN Resolution 687 to declare that WMD and destroy it. He did neither.

We do not know where that WMD is now. But, to say that it never existed is to call the UN Inspectors to be liars. Is CBS ready to declare that? I don’t think so.

America is not obligated to prove where that WMD is. Our enemies have the obligation to prove to the UN that it was destroyed. Absent any proof, then we may assume that it is hidden or removed to another country. All this blather is muddleheaded.
Scott V Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 11:43 am
GaltLives,

Remember, we sent them a going away present (a bomb) as the Russians were leaving Iraq. Injured some of their people leaving. I believe they were scientists as I recall.

Our “relationship” with Russia has deteriorated ever since.
sonicfrog.net » Blog Archive » Interesting Iraq News That Won’t Make A Diffierence… Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 11:46 am
[…] More on the subject here. […]
Terrye Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Saddam Hussein could have moved wmd, sold it, given it away, destroyed it. After all we did not exactly sneak up on the man.
Bush Didn’t Lie, Okay? The CIA Did Screw Up Royally, Though. : The Sundries Shack Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 12:31 pm
[…] The Anchoress highlights a fascinating story that’s worth a look today. CBS News tells the tale of an Iraqi defector who came to be code-named Curveball (an apt name if ever there were one) whose tales of biological weapons were brought by the CIA to both President Bush and President Clinton before him. It seems that Curveball’s information was considered so reliable that it was taken seriously by two US administrations and, at least, German intelligence. […]
The Baltimore Reporter Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 12:34 pm
[…] is the fact that because of this defector can we finally put to rest the Bush lied meme? The Anchoress: You’d think this story - which goes to the root of the “lies” that brought us into Iraq […]
Gooseman Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 4:39 pm
CBS (see B. S.) just can’t play it completely straight. They still want to lay it at the feet of Bush, even though the Clinton admin. said the same things. But, buried in the article, is another of the classic “big lie” technique examples that communists have been using for decades.
To wit: “along with the now-disproved Iraqi quest for uranium for nuclear weapons”

Classic stuff. Present a lie as a commonly known fact and hope everyone just accepts it. No mention of the fact that Plume’s hubby actually testified that he found evidence of Iraqi attempts to buy yellow cake to congress and then later changed it in his book to make the administration look bad. And for heaven’s sake, don’t mention the 2000 TONS of yellow cake found in Iraq and shipped back to the states.
Despite the UN’s complaint about our handling of it.
Bec Says:
November 3rd, 2007 at 6:16 pm
Some who talked up the action might have thought Iraq would be a “cakewalk…” Gordon and O’Hanlon say we must not “assume that Hussein will quickly fall.” I think that’s just what is likely to happen.
Taking Saddam down was a cakewalk. He fell like a deck of cards.
There was no guarantee of this happening. Remember how our guys were wearing chemical masks when they first went in? It was the rebuilding of Iraq that proved to be very difficult - the “you break it, you fix it” part - and Bush was always honest about this. For gosh sakes, the media was always exasperated with his mantra: “It’s hard work.”

I also think that Bush’s going along with the “Mission Accomplished” bit when he flew over to give his thanks to the troops for their amazing work wasn’t so out of line as the media portrayed it. For everything I’ve seen of this president, preening is not one of his vices. I would say he was eager to give them a personal thumbs up. Someday, I hope this will all be written up truthfully.
Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup — Pirate’s Cove Says:
November 4th, 2007 at 9:11 am
[…] The Anchoress throws a Curveball to Slick Willy and Bush 43 […]
submandave Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
I’m not sure that the intel received from Curveball was all that out of line. The “smoking guns” used by CBS seem to be WMD in general and mobile labs in specific. It is true that no stockpiles were found, but there were mobile labs that were capable of biologic/chemical production. Just because they weren’t dirty doesn’t mean that they weren’t designed for WMD support. I mean, what else would they be used for, a roving pesticide service in the desert? As for the WMD question in the macro sense, I look at the materials that UNSCOM had inventoried in 1998 and try to reconcile that with the fact that none was found, nor were there any records of the material being destroyed. This leads me to the conclusion that it is probably somewhere, we just don’t know where. In my mind it is not hard to concede that this material could likely have been moved somewhere in the many months we “rushed” to war while playign footsie with Saddam’s partners in the UNSC.

Bottom line, while I can concede that there were no large stockpiles of WMD in Iraq, I haven’t seen a convincing argument that they were not there at the time we said they were. I honestly don’t know the answers, but having been involved in other highly classified operations, I can say with certainty that it is possible for the government and millitary to know things with certainty about which there is no open souce evidence or even indication. I can not discount the possibility that this is another one of those cases.
The Anchoress » Blog Archive » Iraq War & Warming: A Study in Irony - UPDATED Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
[…] Clinton & Bush both thrown a Curveball on Iraq? […]
WMD info | truegrit Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
[…] The Anchoress reports: Hillary Clinton, in 2003, concurred, saying that the information President Bush was showing was “consistent with what we saw,” when she and her husband were in the White House. […]
Watcher of Weasels Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Submitted for Your Approval…

First off… any spambots reading this should immediately go here, here, here, and here. Die spambots, die! And now… here are all the links submitted by members of the Watcher’s Council for this week’s vote. Council li…
Watcher of Weasels Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 1:25 am
The Council Has Spoken!…

The Council Has Spoken! First off… any spambots reading this should immediately go here, here, here, and here. Die spambots, die! And now… the winning entries in the Watcher’s Council vote for this week are Courts v.&…
The Colossus of Rhodey Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Watcher’s Council results…

And now… the winning entries in the Watcher’s Council vote for this week are Courts v. Terrorism = Wile E. Coyote v. Road Runner by Big Lizards, and A Great Shifting of the Winds by Eternity Road. There was actually a tie …
Rhymes With Right Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 10:07 am
Watcher’s Council Results…

The winning entries in the Watcher’s Council vote for this week are Courts v. Terrorism = Wile E. Coyote v. Road Runner by Big Lizards, and A Great Shifting of the Winds by Eternity Road. Here is a link to the full results……
The Anchoress » Blog Archive » Thanking God for Dubya - recapping WMD Says:
December 10th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
[…] Clinton/Bush Both Thrown a Curveball on Iraq Where did the WMD Intel Come From? None of this would be happening if Bush hadn’t invaded […]